Music Market Research in Ukraine

Details

Background

Despite the ongoing war, Russian music retains a measurable presence on Ukrainian streaming platforms. This study analyses the representation of Russian artists across the top charts of YouTube Music, Apple Music, Spotify, and Deezer, and estimates the financial flows (including tax contributions to the Russian federal budget) generated by Ukrainian streams. The core objective was to assess the security risk associated with these economic transfers during active hostilities.

Methodology

Chart data was collected across the top 100 tracks on four major streaming platforms during February–March 2023. Revenue estimates were calculated using published streaming payout rates (L. Dre, 2022) combined with weekly chart position data. Tax liability was modelled using applicable Russian rates: 20% income tax, 20% VAT, a 10% profit margin assumption for corporate entities, and a 6% rate for individual entrepreneurs. Label and distributor tax contributions were estimated separately using 2021 baseline data.

Market Presence & Trends

Russian tracks appear across all four platforms in the top 100; in the top 10, they are present on two of the four platforms.
Spotify and YouTube Music show the highest concentration of Russian content; Apple Music and Deezer are dominated by Ukrainian artists.
Most prominent Russian artists by chart presence: Instasamka (8 tracks in the top 100), Big Baby Tape (3 tracks on Spotify), Anna Asti and Xolidayboy (consistent multi-platform presence).

Financial Impact & Income Estimates

Artist Revenue: Using streaming rates (L. Dre, 2022) and weekly chart data, estimated annual revenues for Russian artists in Ukraine were calculated. Revenue Drivers: High chart positions lead to consistent monetisation, which in turn contributes to tax payments to the Russian budget.

Taxation & Economic Risk

Estimated annual tax contributions from Russian artists streaming in Ukraine: $319.6k.
Label and distributor taxes: distributors — $8.34k; labels — $7.73k; combined — $16.08k annually.
Total estimated annual tax inflow to the Russian budget from Ukrainian streams: approximately $335k.

At estimated unit costs of $20k–$50k, the tax revenue generated could correspond to the financing of approximately 6–15 Shahed-type drones.

Industry Structure & Operational Models

Two Label Models: (1) Publishing model (Universal, Warner, Kiss Koala), where labels promote individual tracks and an artist may work across multiple labels; (2) Artist-centric model (Black Star, Gazgolder), where the label controls the artist’s entire catalogue. Market Behaviour: Most Russian artists operate within the publishing model, allowing Russian content to enter Ukrainian charts through numerous distributors. International Labels in Russia: After 2022, several global labels formally announced their withdrawal from Russia, yet their Russian divisions continued operating through management buyouts and affiliated entities.

Result

Ukrainian streaming platforms have significantly reduced Russian music's share, but have not fully eliminated it. The remaining presence generates stable, recurring income for Russian artists and measurable tax revenue for the Russian state — creating an indirect financial link between Ukrainian consumer behaviour and Russian military capacity. Further reduction will require a combination of regulatory intervention, platform-level algorithmic filtering, and continued shifts in listener preference. The findings provide a quantitative basis for policymakers and platforms to assess the case for stricter content restrictions on Russian music in wartime Ukraine.

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