The Ukraine mineral deal has been labelled as one of the possible steps towards strengthening relations between Ukraine and the US and fostering a ceasefire. Even though the terms of the agreement are changed on the go, and it has not been signed yet, both sides should prepare to implement its conditions soon. One key problem is ensuring that rare earth minerals in Ukraine are not misused. Our solution: use OSINT to verify counteragents who will leverage from the deal. Molfar explains why and how to check mining companies using publicly available data in the context of the rare mineral agreement.
Ukraine Mineral Deal: What We Know Now?
As of early March 2025, officials have not publicly revealed much about the processes and conditions of the Trump Ukraine mineral deal. Initially, officials introduced it as a way for Ukraine to repay American military aid during the Russo-Ukrainian war. The concept is as follows: Ukraine and the US set up a joint investment fund that will be used to reconstruct Ukraine post-war. The Ukrainian side must contribute half of the revenue from developing its minerals, gas, and oil. The US will use this money to foster Ukraine's economic prosperity. Hence, American contractors are expected to operate in Ukraine to develop minerals according to the deal.
Who Will Mine Minerals in Ukraine?
Even though you can find rare earth minerals in Ukraine, like lithium, graphite, titanium, uranium, etc., developing them without significant monetary investment and advanced technology is challenging. That’s why Ukraine must attract American investors to mine the deposits. It is still unknown which critical raw materials companies will be involved in mining Ukraine rare earth minerals. Likely, it will be a mix of public and private American mining firms. Neither side has yet clarified the standards and requirements for choosing which US contractors will develop Ukrainian resources after a deal is sealed.
Why Are Security Checks and Audits Necessary?
Even before signing the Ukraine mineral deal, officials should adopt measures to ensure safe and transparent resource mining. A key step is to study in detail all American contractors who want to develop the deposits of minerals. If untrustworthy investors get involved, Ukraine may suffer from such negative consequences as:
- Security Hazards. Russian agents can infiltrate the domain and try to destabilize Ukraine from the inside. As a result, we will face economic and security risks.
- Corruption. There is always a possibility of bribery, tax evasion, and mismanagement of the resources by the rare earth minerals companies.
- Exploitation of Resources. The Ukrainian side may get the short end of the stick and not benefit significantly from the deal. Ukraine may receive minimal perks while its valuable resources are extracted and sold abroad unfairly.
- Negative Environmental Impact. While developing rare earth minerals in Ukraine, untrustworthy US companies can neglect safety measures to maximize profit. As an outcome, Ukraine will have to deal with deforestation, soil degradation, water pollution, etc.
- Monopoly. If a single foreign entity gains excessive control over minerals, it could manipulate prices and supply. There should be negotiated measures to ensure that one contractor will not establish monopoly.
- Poor Work Conditions. During the development of the rare earth minerals in Ukraine, local workers can suffer mistreatment and abuse from unreliable counteragents. Poor labour conditions, low wages, and unsafe working environments could become a problem.
How Can OSINT Be Used to Verify Counteragents?
Using open-source intelligence to verify rare earth minerals mining companies can be an efficient and cost-effective strategy. For Americans, it will ensure they retain a reputation as a reliable partner in foreign direct investment projects. For Ukrainians, it is a chance to avoid the unfavourable shortcomings and threats listed above. Here are a few ways OSINT can be used to guarantee the safe development of Ukrainian minerals:
- Verify the Registration Details and Owners. Using open sources like the US Security and Exchange Commision Database is essential to discover legal registration details and ultimately beneficial owners. Moreover, it is crucial to look up possible offshore entities of the American firms that mine rare earth minerals in Ukraine. It will help to prevent Russian-owned firms from being involved in the deal.
- Do a Company Reputation Check. Analyzing media reports, social media footprint, and employee reviews can reveal a company’s reputation in the industry. Such a check is a must to ensure that potential partners don’t have a history of employee mistreatment, pollution, ties to Russian agents, etc.
- Investigate Previous Mining Cases. Dig into court records and NGO reports to get an independent point of view on how safe and successful previous mining projects of the firm were. Has a company been sued for labour law violations? Was a firm accused of money laundering or corruption?
- Conduct a Financial Audit. The Ukrainian side should check the financial statements, credit histories, and tax filings of the contractors to know more about the economic health of the companies. Does a firm have debt issues? Are financial records transparent?
- Analyze Past Business Partnerships. When it comes to mining rare earth minerals in Ukraine, it is a top priority to choose reliable counteragents. A history of unstable partnerships or legal conflicts may reveal that a company is not worth the trust. For instance, it can be effective to use HUMINT to get info about the experience of collaborating with a contractor from a previous client or supplier.
- Study Past Mining Sites With GEOINT. Using GEOINT can help assess how a company managed its previous mining locations. Google Earth, Sentinel-2, or photos from commercial satellite services can be utilized to find signs of excessive deforestation, toxic waste disposal, or abandoned sites.
Verify Companies With Molfar
A keen knowledge of OSINT can be helpful not only for large-scale events like the rare earth minerals Ukraine deal. Molfar offers corporate intelligence services to monitor due diligence, screen contractors, and collect intelligence for your business. Since 2019, we’ve helped numerous clients from the US, EU, Nordic countries, and Ukraine to inform big and small business decisions with OSINT.
