Molfar identified the movement routes of GuardService PMC, the Belarusian analogue of the Wagner PMC

According to Belsat and Deutsche Welle, as well as the “Ukrainian Truth” media, officers of the 5th Separate Special Forces Brigade are training employees of the private security company GuardService on the territory of their base and at the Maryina Horka training ground in Minsk region to further involve them in combat operations. The Belarusian dictator Lukashenko has officially authorized the possession of firearms by the employees of the GuardService.

In 2021, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus published lists of weapons possessed by GuardService

Belarusian oppositionist Valery Sakhashchik: "GuardService" is an analog of the Russian PMC Wagner, owned by Yevgeny Prigozhin.

So, self-proclaimed President of Belarus Lukashenko is preparing his own “Wagner mercenaries” to take part in the war. He has already authorized them to keep and use:

  • pistols
  • assault rifles
  • sniper rifles;
  • "special equipment" and physical force. 

And they are already undergoing combat training at the Maryina Gorka training ground and other bases in the Minsk region.

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Molfar identified the routes of movement of GuardService PMC units

Belarusian oppositionists also report that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has invested money in the development of GuardService!

The Molfar OSINT community has obtained evidence of GuardService militants training, and has restored their routes of movement through Belarus, Russia, and European countries, including Lithuania and Latvia. Terrorist Vladimir Putin's money is used to train future private assassins, who can be sent to Ukraine or other countries. We want to prevent this, which is why we are drawing public attention to the activities of Belarusian mercenaries and their Moscow supervisors.

Where did the proof come from? An informant from the Russian Federation sold the Molfar OSINT community cellular billing system data, and based on this data we identified the routes of movement of the GuardService militants.

Who teaches and trains the GuardService militants? Officers of the 5th Separate Special Forces Brigade, as well as professional mercenaries from the Wagner PMC.

How many are there now? There were 500, then 1000, training and recruitment have been going on for several months now, and the staff has been increased with officers, warrant officers, sergeants and soldiers who served in special operations forces and special units of the Belarusian law enforcement agencies.

What do they promise? Work on “business trips”, €3700/month. 

What do we need to understand? On the territory of the Russian Federation, they are most likely training assault troops, namely infantrymen who will work in reconnaissance units or highly mobile combat groups. This is the main hypothesis that we have received as a result of our investigation. However, it is not the only one: we propose to consider two more hypotheses.

1️⃣ Hypothesis about the Russian Federation's PSYOP

The training of militants funded by the Kremlin may be part of a special psychological operation aimed at intimidating the Armed Forces of Ukraine and restraining combat units on the border with Belarus. In this case, there will be no further manning of the GuardService PMC units, but there may be some provocations on the border between Belarus and Ukraine. 

The purpose of the PSYOP and potential provocations involving militants is to force Ukraine's military leadership to keep combat-ready units and heavy weapons along the many kilometers of the border with Belarus. In this way, Ukraine's combat potential will be reduced: military and equipment from the north will not be able to be sent to the east or south. 

2️⃣ Hypothesis about the training of air defense operators on the basis of the PMC "GuardService"

The GuardService fighters can be turned into air defense operators. The Russian Federation has sufficient equipment, S-400 (S-300) anti-aircraft systems, and experienced instructors for this purpose. In this case, a thousand people capable of firing missiles from S-400 (S-300) systems from Belarus at the territory of Ukraine, including Kyiv, is critical. 

As a reminder, this is just a hypothesis. We have developed this hypothesis based on the shelling of Kyiv from the territory of Belarus on January 14, 2023, using the S-400 system, and on the routes of movement of the GuardService militants obtained during the investigation. 

❗️ It should also be noted that as of January 17, 2023, Ukraine's military intelligence did not record any signs of a strike group being created in Belarus. 

📍 We suggest that you consider these routes on your own and draw your own conclusions. 

All cellular subscribers have been identified in this area, which is a training ground and the surrounding territory of the Belarusian special forces

In the period from November 1, 2022, to January 12, 2023, information on dozens of cellular subscribers' routes was found around the 5th separate special forces brigade base, according to the billing system. All the cellular subscribers whose routes are presented in this article were first identified in the area where the 5th separate special forces brigade is stationed. That is, we have every reason to believe that these are mercenaries whom the terrorist leadership of the Russian Federation and Belarus wants to use for war. That is why we publish information about the movements of these cellular subscribers' openly – to draw public attention to it.

No information was found on the movement of these cellular subscribers' across the territory of Ukraine (during the period from 1 November, 2022, until 12 January 2023).  

Infographics of cellular subscribers' movement in the period from 01.11.2022 to 12.01.2023

Pay attention to the signals from Smolensk and Moscow – these subscribers were moving through Belarus towards the borders with neighboring countries, in particular towards the border with Ukraine, then disappeared from the radar, and the signal reappeared on the territory of Russian cities
The signal of subscribers from the training ground was repeatedly recorded on the territory of the city surrounding the training ground: among civilian objects and infrastructure
Numerous signals from individual subscribers were recorded in the town of Maloryta, Brest region, in a residential area, near the border with Ukraine in Volyn region
The same subscribers that were recorded in the city of Maloryta, Brest region, were also recorded in the immediate proximity to the checkpoint on the border with Volyn region from Belarus – the Maloryta checkpoint
Cellular subscribers who were at the training ground were also actively moving around Belarus, with dozens of cases of crossing the European border (Lithuania, Latvia). A separate group of subscribers was also recorded around Moscow and the Moscow region. Another group traveled from Latvia to Kazakhstan within a short time.
A separate group of cellular subscribers was recorded using this route, including many facts of fixation in Minsk, Smolensk and Moscow. The movement along this route was repeatedly made in both directions, which may indicate the participation of a high-ranking group of people from Moscow in the training of the GuardService militants. 
One of the cellular subscribers under investigation was also recorded in Moscow, in particular directly on the territory of the Kremlin, which suggests that this subscriber is a high-ranking person or a person accompanying him

Conclusions: Belarusian mercenaries have become more active

According to the investigation, we can testify to the intensification of the private military company GuardService’s development in Belarus. The mercenaries are being trained with the consent, support, and management of high-ranking representatives of the Kremlin government. The training of militants of the potential terrorist group is currently active, with recruitment and training of new personnel ongoing. In addition, the government of self-proclaimed President Alexander Lukashenko has already implemented conditional legal formalities in the Republic of Belarus to legalize the activities of the GuardService PMC and increase their power. 

The potential involvement of the Wagner terrorist group in the training of mercenaries of the GuardService PMC – is dangerous. It is an additional confirmation that both dictators plan in future to involve mercenaries in hostilities. However, other hypotheses should not be dismissed.

The Molfar OSINT community will continue to monitor the training of mercenaries and gather intelligence to record changes in the degree of threat from Belarus. 

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